Market Update 8/11/18

Let’s get out of the summer mode! it has been a while from my latest update and  time to catch up!

I was holding the long position on SPY since the third week of May until last Friday 8/3/18 and trying to provide short updates during this time by twitting at the critical points. It is really not easy to explain with limited words in the twits..From this point further, I aim to provide weekly directional updates from this blog again and will step in and acknowledge if I see a significant deviation from what is written from the weekly update after the market hours.

I closed my short SPY position (SPXU) and SPY 8/10 284 & 286 puts on Friday when SPY reached 283-283.5 range. This was a little bit early exit to lock the profits as my exit target was 282. The main reasons for this early exit were

  • Minimum retracement requirement was met
  • SPY 284 & 286 Puts options were expiring in couple hours and were in positive +75% and +300% gains
  • I was expecting a quick bounce back to 285 first even if it will go down further next.

and following this I opened UPRO position @52.63 as both of the below scenarios were leading to a min 285 recovery.

So what is next?

I have detected two patterns that both of them have strong alignments and I would give equal chance for both and have a plan based on that

Scenario 1: Short Term Bearish, Mid Term Bullish 

This was the main reason for my long SPY position exit after 2.5 months. After a quick bounce to 285 range, I expect a sharp decline (around 3%) to 276-277 range. We may see a doji at around 285 followed by 1-2 day decline or even it can be a single day move all in ones. The expected time frame for this move is 1-3 days. I expect this move to be bought up rapidly leading to a new all time high all most with the same pace!  (It will be just a nice options play set up)

Scenario 2: Short Term Bullish, Mid Term Bullish

In this scenario, I expect SPY to push higher and higher in a relatively slower pace in a wedging triangular pattern. It may stay around 283.5 for a single day than move up and the key thing to watch will be exceeding 286 within this week. It is not necessary to make ATH within this week although it is also possible.

Holding the long position and selling short term  287+ call options will be my strategy for this pattern.

How am I going to play these two scenarios?

On a quite high opening within 284-285 range, I will exit long UPRO position short term and plan to make 1 week straddle options. If SPY gets below Friday lows after reaching 284.5 I think it will be a fast move down to 276-277 range.

On the other side if it goes above 286, this will eliminate scenario 1 and any 0.5-0.75% pullbacks  will be a buying opportunity.

Under Scenario 2, we should expect a new all time high with in 2 weeks if not next week.

Have a good trading week!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Update 6/21/18

Hello all,

Just wanted to provide a quick market directional update after several corrective days.

On May 26th, we wrote below projection after closing our short position at the end of bearish cycle on May 25th and going long from there;

As acknowledged above, we expect a 3-4 week bullish move from here. The pace of this move in the first week will tell us more about how it may fold. It may be a fast 3-4 weeks followed by a pulled back? or more steady up move which we can extend thought the summer. One thing to keep in mind is (+) weekly closing is very important for alignment.

A fast 3-4 week move to reach the summit would have potential to trigger another leg of correction but instead, we have seen a slower pace up move in the first 2 weeks followed by a relatively flat 3rd week and continuation of this correction on week 4.

With respect to the way pattern is folding we think; “this is a very healthy correction which should lead to a longer term bullish wave up“.

Although it is not necessary, there is a low chance that we may see a single day sharp drop to end this correction which we would expect it to be bought in the same day or next day and continuation of the bullish move.

Big picture, we expect the continuation of this bullish pattern with a similar pace through out the summer and we will hold our long index position via UPRO.

 

 

 

 

 

 

General Update 6/13/18

Dear followers,

The vacation time was a good opportunity for me to get refreshed and re-evaluate my mission of my sharings in this web site.

Although, I love sharing my honest thoughts, analysis and all my trades instantly, realistically this format is unsustainable as it is taking so much time from my personal & family life.

I will stop here and devote my extra time on more research and development of the technique I have been working on and developing a format that can be long term sustainable.

I only plan to step in critical times to give short updates about the market direction when I think it is necessary..

Take care

 

Market & Portfolio Update 5/26 after closing -Updated

Bonjour from Paris,

I would like to provide a quick market update and Friday afternoon trades which I couldn’t have chance to share momentarily.

We described the zones in our last two posts. After Monday closing, we narrowed the 5 zones down to zone 1-2 and on Tuesday closing we acknowledged higher chance for zone 2 which was a flat week. Weekly flactuation was perfectly in the upper and lower bound of zone 2.

We believe SPY staying in zone 2 has the highest probability of occurring for this week followed by a 3-4 week bullish move

As acknowledged above, we expect a 3-4 week bullish move from here. The pace of this move in the first week will tell us more about how it may fold. It may be a fast 3-4 weeks followed by a pulled back? or more steady up move which we can extend thought the summer. One thing to keep in mind is (+) weekly closing is very important for alignment.

With respect to this projection we increased our S&P & stock positions and added options on Friday afternoon.

We increased our UPRO position by another 15% to 35% at the closing @47.12

We have also added HBM @6.60 and increased it’s weight to 7.5% from 5%

LRCX options:  We go heavy long in addition to our 15% LRCX position.

Sold LRCX 6/15 210 puts @11.1 when the spot price was about 201.9. This gave us 3$ advantage and with that we purchased x 3 times LRCX 6/8 210 call options @1.23 average. So by just paying 69 cents net premium we increased our LRCX exposure for the next 2 weeks by almost 4 times. If we are wrong on timing, in the worst case scenario, we are comfortable to hold LRCX @202.59 cost but if we are right on timing, our gains will exponentially increase.

SPY call options: We open SPY 6/8 274 call options @ 0.99 and 6/8 276 call options @ 0.42 both entries turned out to be good ones in the last 1 hour.  We expect SPY to reach minimum 276 level this week.

We are long UPRO  (35%) LRCX (15%), MU(7.5%), HBM (7.5%)ESIO(5%), SWIR (5%), FIT(5%).

We have total of 105% SPY long position, 45% stock positions and 20% cash. We will add more to our positions at the end of the day if we see the expected positive day on Monday.

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P.S. : For some reason, I was not able to post on Stocktwits account on Friday.  Security settings or something else must be massed up when I am abroad. If this continues I will be able share the trade entries in my twitter account only until I got back to US. So please also follow me on https://twitter.com/Pattern_Trader_ in case I won’t have chance to post again on Stocktwits during this period.

Literally after a 10th attempt I was able to send one post. So I will have to continue only on Twitter until June 10th.


Decided to make this addition/acknowledgement about our bearish target of below 250 by May 25th.  We were positioned and strongly expecting this bearish cycle to end with a sharp declining 2 weeks in the weeks ending May 18th and 25th. When the drop on the week 18th stayed limited, we gave one last chance for Monday to align to potentially come down to 260 but on positive opening and higher closing on Monday we officially gave up.

We believe the May 25 was the end of a bearish cycle which we expect to see 3-4 week positive move. Than a new direction to be set. The last time market ended the bearish cycle failing to have a major drop was end of December!

 

 

Market & Portfolio Update 5/22/18

Today,  let’s start with what we have shared about the zones this weekend;

 

SPY weekly chart

So there are a lot of mixed signs for next week. How are we going to shape our strategy on this?

We have divided the weekly chart in 5 zones above.

Any positive day from this point will increase the chances of zone 1 & 2. if we see a (+) closing day we will continue reducing our SPXU position. if week closes in 1 & 2 zones, we can expect a move to SPY 285 range in the next 3-4 weeks.

Although there are daily support levels around 267, weekly bars are showing an accelerated zone below 270. Depending on the pace in the next 2-3 days, testing Zone 3 lows (262) or Zone 4 lows (258) have biggest potential for this week. We should see a (-) day on Monday to expect SPY turning into this scenario. 

Gap up opening on Monday, increased the chances of zone 1 & zone 2 significantly. We started reducing our short SPY position (SPXU) on Monday after higher opening and when the closing was even higher than the opening price we decided to exit all short positions as the pattern was leaning to zone 1 described above.

Our plan was to initiate long position if we see a continuation of green bar on the second day.  After a higher opening and testing lows when the price was getting  above the opening price in the afternoon, we decided to add 10% UPRO (triple long SPY) position @144.05.  We had to exit couple minutes later @143.21 in the decline as;

  • the short term pattern was looking ugly ( not super reliable )
  • daily pattern was leaning toward zone 2 instead of zone 1

The exiting was the right decision and the way it proceed has a potential to be the beginning of a sell off..

In most of the times, our price pattern detection has higher weight over the time patterns. However in certain time zones say 10% of the time, we rely more on the time zones as their pattern gives us more clarity. We believe we are in that specific time zone and we were calling 5/25 dead line weeks ahead for a multi week bullish reversal. As the time was running out and we didn’t see an accelerated down move in the bearish last week, we gave up on our below 250 target after Monday closing.

We believe SPY staying in zone 2 has the highest probability of occurring for this week followed by a 3-4 week bullish move but there is still chance that today’s move may turn into a 3-4 day sell off to test zone 3 or even 4!

We currently have 42.5% stock position and no index position and we plan to stay in this position until the end of the week where we would like to add long index position.

Our 5/23 265 and 5/25 260 puts are still active and if S&P drops right after we closed our short position, our puts will be our only consolation.

In leadership of MU, our portfolio had +0.76% performance today vs S&P’s -0.28% loss.

We have added HBM @7.35 yesterday which was in our radar for long time. Based on the detected weekly pattern we are expecting a new up wave to start this week or next week.

 

We are long on LRCX (15%), MU(7.5%), ESIO(5%), SWIR (5%), FIT(5%). HBM (5%)

We don’t have index position at the moment. Our intention is to open long position at the end of this week and stay flat until than.

Starting from tomorrow morning until June 10th, I will be out of US on vacation. I am willing to re-charge my self and limit my daily market exposure during this period and come back refreshed 🙂 I plan to provide short updates in the weekends during this period.

 

Market & Portfolio Updates after 5/18 Closing

In last weekend’s session we called this week a very clear bearish week and acknowledged that we will stay on short position through out the week.

We plan to stay on the short side through the week with no change

Although it was a bearish week and our portfolio had +0.74% performance vs SPY’s -0.56% decline this week, it was a very disappoint week for us as the decline we have seen this week appeared to be very limited and not even reached to our SPY 268 puts which were due 5/18.

We called last week as a clear “bearish week” but next week gets into “anything can be expected week” category and this is valid for both directions this time!

We are going to list all the facts we see first and explain our trade plan depending on what happens in the beginning of the week.

Here are all the positive and negative facts;

On the bearish side;

  • Weekly closing gave us a clear short term weekly sell signal. When we have this signal, the following week at the end of bearish cycle also tends to be bearish.  In another words, although next week has potential to be a sharp week in any direction, we believe chances of a bearish last week is still higher. 
  • On the weekly chart, below 270 may trigger a sharp decline to 262 in 2-3 days. On daily bars 20MA and 50MA supports may hold for a day maybe but below 270 should be considered as potentially fast zone.
  • The last 2 days we have we have seen significant sell off on the semi-conductors and technology which usually starts 1-2 days in advance!. Most of the Nasdaq Power shares individual stock technicals also seem to be broken to down side.

On the bullish side;

  • This week supposed to be a net bearish week and S&P had multiple opportunities to break down 270 and accelerate down this week but all dips were bought. Chances of 3-4 week long bullish move should also be considered for the coming week or week after.
  • We expect a 3-4 week bullish cycle after May 25th so bearish side is running out of time. If down move is going to happen this week it should start on Monday!

SPY weekly chart

So there are a lot of mixed signs for next week. How are we going to shape our strategy on this?

We have divided the weekly chart in 5 zones above.

Any positive day from this point will increase the chances of zone 1 & 2. if we see a (+) closing day we will continue reducing our SPXU position. if week closes in 1 & 2 zones, we can expect a move to SPY 285 range in the next 3-4 weeks.

 

Although there are daily support levels around 267, weekly bars are showing an accelerated zone below 270. Depending on the pace in the next 2-3 days, testing Zone 3 lows (262) or Zone 4 lows (258) have biggest potential for this week. We should see a (-) day on Monday to expect SPY turning into this scenario. 

Zone 5,  opening below 270.3  with a minimum 2% drop day is the only move that can align this to below 250 PT by 5/25. Chances are much less of course but still possible.

We closed 20% of our SPXU position today @10.12 and reduced its weight to 50% as next week is not a clear bearish week as last week. We have also increased our LRCX position to 10% from 7.5% at 196.3 ( we had closed 7.5% position last week @202.3)

On a negative day on Monday, we will hold on to our short positions, depending on how it is progressing we can add back more SPXU and puts on Monday closing. On a positive day on Monday we will continue reducing our short position.

Our SPY 268 5/18 puts were unfortunately turned out to be another loss. We have to admit that this was quite disappointing as we had high confidence on these puts. This reduced our options success rate to 69% and average return for a trade to 70%.

Our portfolio had +0.74% performance vs SPY’s -0.56% decline this week.

We are short S&P with SPXU (50%), long on LRCX (10%), MU(7.5%), ESIO(5%), SWIR (5%), FIT(5%).

We have total of  150% SPY short position with 50% SPXU,  32.5% stock holdings and 17.5% cash position.

We are also holding SPY 5/25 260 and SPY 5/23 265 puts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market & Portfolio Update 5/15/18

We would like to provide a quick update on the what we see after Monday and Tuesday’s closings

  • We believe S&P is in perfect alignment with the projection we shared on Saturday @ http://pattern-based-trading.com/2018/05/12/market-portfolio-update-5-12-18/
  • The pace is slightly higher than expected which is normal for the final wave.
  • We will stick to our simple game plan for the week which was; “We plan to stay on the short side through the week with no change.”
  • We had PT minimum target of 267 for today if S&P has reached there we were planning to close our puts and % short position to reopen next day.  We may reach 267 tomorrow and we are planning to hold on this time. There is a high chance that we can see accelerated down move in at least one of the next 3 days.
  • EOW will most likely be an intermediate target and this first 2 days is not giving us enough information yet but we may see weekly lows in 259-262 range.

Today was a remarkable day for our options. As we promised not to share our very short term options due to their very high risks, we couldn’t celebrate these with our followers but today was the day we were targeting for more than a week and we were well prepared with our heavy short position. Our 5/18, 5/23 and 5/25 puts also also made very good gains today.

Our portfolio had +1.35% performance today vs S&P’ s -0.69 loss.

It was an unusual short update tonight due to my super busy schedule nowadays. As a short summary, we wanted to acknowledge that we believe the pattern is inline with our projection, we are comfortable with our short position and we plan to stay on short side through out the week as we see a potential of accelerated down move.

 

 

Market & Portfolio Update 5/12/18

S&P kept going higher everyday this week, us being on the opposite side for possibly the longest time since we started sharing our strategies. We believe we have entered the right trade early but didn’t execute the exit on Tuesday closing to re-open higher towards the end of the week as the down side potential vs upside we see in the next 2 weeks were so heavily leading the down side.

We will do the evaluation of our trade plan first and our projections for the next two weeks next.

Two weeks ago on 4/28 we have shared below chart & explanations.

SPY Daily Chart 4/28/18

Scenario 2:  On the second week of April, there was also multi-day extension and deviation from the detected matching pattern. We were caught up on short position early and we tried closing and reopening higher on a daily basis during that period.  There is slight chance (20%) we also give here for pushing higher similarly  for couple  more days before accelerating lower.  In this scenario we still believe our SPY below 250 target will be hit most likely end of the May 18-25 range

This up swing was acknowledged as a low possibility of occurrence on 4/28. S&P came down first to 259 levels and the time frame was getting narrower and time frame was the main reason why we didn’t take into account this to occur with a 1 week delay. 

On the other side in last week’s trade plan we shared below notes;

On a gap up opening negative closing or star ” + ” at the top and negative day on Tuesday will also align back to below projection.

On a bullish continuation day on Monday (scenario 2), we will exit 1/2 of our SPXU position to reopen higher. (most likely reopen towards the end of the week in this case).

Monday we got the doji (+) on the top. Tuesday was perfectly aligned during the day as S&P got into -0.6% but closed flat. This was the derailment to above plan and we should have closed 1/2 position to reopen higher towards the end of the week.  We shared below acknowledgement after Tuesday closing;

On a higher opening, we may expect couple more doji days like we had for the remaining of the week but not expecting major acceleration after seeing Monday and Tuesday. We have strong believe for next week to be a “bearish week” and worst case we are expecting below 260 as an exit. For these two reasons on a higher opening we decided to hold on to our short positions.

Bottom line, we decided to stay on the short side as the down side potential vs upside we see in the next 2 weeks were so heavily leading the down side.

Along with our trade strategy we share our confidence on our positions. Our portfolio ratios are also determined based on our confidence of S&P direction.

We started the week with 105% net S&P position (50% SPXU vs 45% Stock holdings) On Thursday we reduced our stock position to 30% vs 55% SPXU position making us net 135% short on SPY and on Friday we maximized our SPXU position to 70% vs 30% stock holding, putting us into net 180% short SPY.

We have the highest level of SPXU holdings. The main facts of our confidence are because of the time and pattern alignment

  • Time analysis pointing a bearish week
  • Dual time frame matching pattern detection
  • Internal waves of this 4th wave are in good alignment
  • The formation we see in the last 8 days is also a bearish formation pointing a sharp decline

SPY Daily 5/12/18

The last two down waves made the most damage in 2 week period and started on Mondays without having a reversal bar on Fridays. For the final wave down we can expect a similar movement. Although this has potential to be a much sharper last wave.

Hmm, when was that last 7% drop day? (No worries we don’t bet on this :))

We plan to stay on the short side through the week with no change.

We expect a massive upside potential to new highs if SPY can reach below 250 PT in the next 2 weeks.

We have added our SPY 260 5/25 puts and SPY 268 5/18 puts during the week. Although they are in negative territory, we still have high confidence on these trades for the next 1-2 weeks.  Below is the updated summary of our options

Despite our 105% net short position to start the week, good performance of our 45% weighted high beta stock holdings were able to almost balance our portfolio until Thursday. Our portfolio had – 1.25% loss vs S&P’s 2.57 gain this week.

We have reduced our MU (@52.30) and LRCX (@202.3) positions to 7.5% from 15% on Thursday targeting to buy back in 2 weeks. Both of these exits appeared to be good exits also giving us confidence about our short SPY position.

We are short S&P with SPXU (70%), long on LRCX (7.5%), MU(7.5%), ESIO(5%), SWIR (5%), FIT(5%).

We have total of 210% SPY short position vs 30% stock holdings. We are also holding SPY 5/25 260 and SPY 5/18 268 puts.

 

 

 

Market & Portfolio Updates 5/8/18

After S&P had a  doji (+) for Monday, pattern was perfectly inline with Scenario 1 we have shared this weekend until the last 1 hour of the day.

On a gap up opening negative closing or star ” + ” at the top and negative day on Tuesday will also align back to below projection.

Flat closing by gaining back almost 0.6% made it more complicated for the week.

We strongly believe that the market will make a bullish reversal in between May 18th – May 25th. Is it going to be a short term 3-4 week reversal without reaching below 250 ( possibility 256-259 area as short term bottom, described as scenario 2)  or is it going to be a major bullish reversal to new highs after touching below 250 (scenario 1)? 

You may read the details of scenario 1 and 2 described in this weekend’s session below.

Market & Portfolio Updates 5/4/18

Today, we are going to list all the facts we see about the pattern folding and what to expect based on the next moves

Although it was almost a full recovery today we don’t see this as a strong bullish day either.

On a slightly lower opening, pattern can align back to what was given as scenario 1 and we will hold on to our positions. (almost full recovery today lowered the chances of this)

If SPY opens lower than today’s low, we expect a strong bounce from 264.5 to potentially 269-270 range by Thursday opening. If we see a large gap down below 265 we will go flat for 1 day to reopen higher. We will also activate Friday calls potentially for 266 to exit and re-open short position on Thursday opening. (this came into consideration because of today’s closing). We believe it may still align with scenario 1 after Thursday if it proceeds as this.

On a higher opening, we may expect couple more doji days like we had for the remaining of the week but not expecting major acceleration after seeing Monday and Tuesday. We have strong believe for next week to be a “bearish week” and worst case we are expecting below 260 as an exit. For these two reasons on a higher opening we decided to hold on to our short positions.

Expecting a bearish week for May 14-18th is giving us confidence about our short position. Depending on where May 18th ends, week of May 21-25th will be more challenging. We will be on bullish side after May 25th. Where SPY landed by than will define if we will be bullish for only 3-4 weeks or longer.

Our portfolio had +0.31% performance today as all our stock holdings were in positive territory.

We are short S&P with SPXU (55%), long on LRCX (15%), MU(15%), ESIO(5%), SWIR (5%), FIT(5%).

We have total of 165% SPY short position vs 45% stock holdings. We are also holding SPY 5/25 260 puts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market & Portfolio Updates 5/4/18

It was the third day and basically 3rd Friday that pattern deviated on the last day of the week from the matching pattern which was perfectly inline in the first 4 days!  After capturing a perfect alignment we will be more cautious on the last trading day in the future!

Below provisional orange lines was shared last week on 4/28 as our 3-4 week projection;

and in yesterday’s session we acknowledged to reverse to bullish position for a single day after visiting a new low (lower than Thursday’s low.)

If we are right, we expect to see SPY reaching 257 or below tomorrow where we plan to exit all of our short positions including all puts. In that case, we plan to activate 1 week long call options targeting to exit on Monday most likely and we may open a small (%) UPRO position (max 15-20%) again targeting to exit on Monday. We expect a very similar day like today for tomorrow with lower lows and lower highs!

S&P reversed 1 day earlier and 1% higher than we expected! and we didn’t react as we were expecting a lower low today (especially with lower opening) and S&P was close to the upper bound we were projecting. 

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Before next week’s projections we want to do a self criticism here!

Today’s move burned our puts which were due today;

  • this was the 3rd mis on the 12th option trade shared ( we are not happy with 75% success rate despite total of 934% return and our target success rate is +90%)
  • all these three misses were due on Friday and 2 of these 3 mises were entered as next day expiring contract acknowledging high risk.  Although, we acknowledged that we won’t share this kind of next day expiration trade ones, we did it again second time as 4 day perfect alignment was giving us very high confidence.
  • 2 out of this 3 mises came on the last day of the week after 4 days perfect alignment. We will consider this in the future.
  • Closing the profitable 5/4 and 5/11 puts right on time on Thursday was the win of the week _______________________________________________________________________________

So what does today’s move mean and what should we expect next? 

Scenario 1:  It was a single day deviation and it can align back by latest Tuesday to the below pattern. With everything moving 1 day fast we can expect the ending of this correction towards May 18 with a strong bounce.

A lower opening with a negative closing day will align back.

On a gap up opening negative closing or star ” + ” at the top and negative day on Tuesday will also align back to below projection.

Scenario 2:  Although this seems to be a bullish scenario for a week actually this is a bearish one on the mid term. For long term bullish perspective, we really shouldn’t see a bullish week next week!

We will  try to explain this on a weekly chart

SPY weekly chart

Let’s remember what we have said yesterday about today’s bar and afterwards;

We expect a very similar day like today for tomorrow with lower lows and lower highs!

What we were expecting on a daily bar “two similar bars with lower lows and lowers highs (both have long leg down fully recovered but closed negative!) is occurred on a larger time frame @ weekly pattern. (please see above weekly chart last two bars, and daily chart Thursday bar & our Friday daily bar projection)

and what was the continuation we have acknowledged?

a single bullish day on Monday, corresponding a single bullish week next week, remaining is actually the same pattern again daily vs weekly and perfectly fitting with out time patterns.

Let’s try to explain more; in this second scenario we expect a bullish week, followed by two pull back weeks until the week of May 25 with a low at range of 256-259, followed by 3-4 positive weeks to 270 and then a longer term decline.

As a short summary; for longer term bullish perspective we should see a decline below 250 in the next 2 or maximum 3 weeks and be done with it. Else if we see a bullish week next week, we believe this has potential to create much more pain in the next couple months before we see a real bullish reversal. 

If you are bullish you don’t want to see a bullish closing week!  We believe testing below 250 by latest May 25 is the minimum requirement for a bullish reversal to new highs!

So what will be our trade plan based on these two scenarios that we see?

On an alignment with scenario 1, at the end of Monday (A lower opening with a negative closing day or a gap up opening negative closing ) we will add to our SPY 5/25 260 puts. We will hold on to our 50% SPXU shorts. ( we have about 5% cash position and we can even add that to our SPXU position for the next 2 weeks)

On a bullish continuation day on Monday (scenario 2), we will exit 1/2 of our SPXU position to reopen higher. (most likely reopen towards the end of the week in this case). We will hold our 5/25 puts because in the worst case scenario, we still expect to see below 260 in the week of 5/25. We are planning to activate higher SPY puts for 5/25 towards the end of the week. The first 2 days of the week should give us good indication for the rest of the week but if it deviates from Scenario 1, we may have low clarity for couple days.

We give 2/3 chance of occurring for Scenario 1 and 1/3 chance for Scenario 2.

The monthly summary of our shared options is as follows;

Success rate: 9/12 with total return of 934%. Average return of trade 78%

Our portfolio was having an excellent week up until Friday. Because of our heavy short position we closed the Friday with -1.32 % performance while S&P had +1.21% day. Despite this, we closed the week with +1.16% total weekly performance vs S&P’s -0.2% weekly performance.

We are short S&P with SPXU (50%), long on LRCX (15%), MU(15%), ESIO(5%), SWIR (5%), FIT(5%).

We have total of 150% SPY short position vs 45% stock holdings.